Will an asteroid hit Earth in 2046?
Lately, the world has been discussing the news about the asteroid 2023 DW that has a chance of colliding with the Earth on February 14, 2046 – right on Valentine’s Day in 23 years. Let’s sum up all we know about the asteroid at the moment and see what the chances of impact are.
Asteroid 2023 DW heading to Earth: what do we know?
Asteroid 2023 DW was discovered on February 26, 2023. According to NASA, it is about 50 meters (160 feet) in diameter which is roughly as wide as an American football field. It is moving at a speed of 25 km/s (15.5 m/s) and completes one orbit around the Sun in 271 days. Besides the possible impact predicted on February 14, 2046, it has nine other potential close approaches between 2047 and 2054.
The asteroid has been added to the ESA’s Risk List – a catalog of objects that can probably hit the Earth. For now, 2023 DW is the only “member” of the list that has a Torino Scale ranking of 1 (the other 1,450 asteroids have a scale ranking of 0). What does it mean?
What happens if asteroid 2023 DW hits Earth?
The fact that 2023 DW has a Torino score of 1 means that the asteroid is a “routine discovery that poses no unusual level of danger”. Even if it hits the Earth, it won’t cause global catastrophe. However, an asteroid of that size can cause significant local damage. For example, the space rock that exploded in 2013 over Chelyabinsk, Russia, was only half the size of 2023 DW. Still, it caused a shockwave that blew out windows and damaged buildings in six nearby cities; about 1,500 people were injured. In the case of asteroid 2023 DW, the scale of destruction can be similar to the explosion of an atomic bomb.
Is asteroid 2023 DW going to hit Earth in 2046?
Despite being number one on the Risk List, 2023 DW is extremely unlikely to hit the Earth. According to NASA, the estimated chance of impact is 1 in 360, and the number is constantly changing as the researchers get more data. It will be possible to finally eliminate (or confirm) the probability of a collision in a few weeks, optimistically. Astronomers keep monitoring 2023 DW, as well as many other asteroids that can possibly come close to the Earth. Keep reading to learn more about potential impact risks in the near future.
Is there an asteroid heading towards Earth in 2023?
Here is a list of asteroids that will come to the Earth closer than 5 LD (lunar distance, or the average distance between the Earth and the Moon, which equals approximately 400,000 kilometers). According to the research data, none of them is going to hit the Earth.
July 18: Asteroid 2020 UQ3
- Magnitude: 17.81
- Constellation: Corona Borealis
- Close approach time: 09:59 GMT (5:59 a.m. EDT)
- Close approach distance: 3.11665 LD
September 28: Asteroid 2013 TG6
- Magnitude: 18.84
- Constellation: Volans
- Close approach time: 21:33 GMT (5:33 p.m. EDT)
- Close approach distance: 3.55349 LD
October 11: Asteroid 2022 UX1
- Magnitude: 21.21
- Constellation: Centaurus
- Close approach time: 13:53 GMT (9:53 a.m. EDT)
- Close approach distance: 3.11758 LD
October 17: Asteroid 1998 HH49
- Magnitude: 13.54
- Constellation: Ara
- Close approach time: 00:33 GMT (October 16, 8:33 p.m. EDT)
- Close approach distance: 3.05204 LD
November 25: Asteroid 2019 CZ2
- Magnitude: 18.07
- Constellation: Sculptor
- Close approach time: 19:49 GMT (2:49 p.m. EST)
- Close approach distance: 2.78834 LD
December 23: Asteroid 2020 YO3
- Magnitude: 17.26
- Constellation: Microscopium
- Close approach time: 20:28 GMT (3:28 p.m. EST)
- Close approach distance: 3.54751 LD
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